HPTN MODELLING CENTRE
Using state-of-the art mathematical models and data to prevent HIV
A collaborative centre that develops and uses mathematical models to support HPTN research activities and inform research directions
What we do
A 2 minute introduction to the HPTN Modelling Centre
Our recent collaboration with UNAIDS
Measuring HIV Acquisitions Among Partners of Key Populations: Estimates From HIV Transmission Dynamic Models
As a result of our analysis in this paper (and another collaborative study that derived estimates of fractions of new HIV infections occurring among key populations), the UNAIDS has refined their methodology underpinning their annual estimates of the fraction of HIV infections acquired by partners of key populations.
You can read the full report here and watch our video on :
Our model based efficacy estimates of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention in cisgender women with partial adherence
Read the details here
The curve suggests that high adherence confers high protection in cisgender women. However, the lower efficacy with partial adherence highlights the need for new PrEP products and interventions to increase adherence.
Collaborative model comparison of long acting injectable PrEP
Using models to extrapolate the results of HPTN trial (HPTN-083) into population level impact and efficiency.
You can read the full story of this analysis here
Achieving high PrEP coverage by offering CAB‐LA can impact the HIV epidemic substantially if rolled out without delays. These PrEP expansions may be efficient in settings with high HIV incidence (like Atlanta) but not in settings with low HIV incidence (like Montreal and the Netherlands).
Additional results of the Atlanta model can also be found in our Lancet Reg Health Am paper
We found that If CAB effectiveness were like HPTN 083, CAB could prevent more infections than TDF/FTC at similar usage. Increased CAB usage could contribute substantially towards reaching EHE goals, but the usage required to meet EHE goals is unrealistic.
