What we do

We design and develop a range of mathematical models and conduct simulation and economic studies to support HPTN research activities including:

  • Understand HIV epidemic dynamics: Identify who is most vulnerable to acquiring and transmitting infection, assess the impact of past interventions and key prevention gaps
  • Identify new interventions: Inform design, conduct, final analysis of clinical trials
  • Optimise HIV prevention programmes: Assess the population-level impact of scaling up HIV intervention programmes and monitor progresses toward set goals
  • Determine HIV prevention needs:  Define the efforts needed to control and eliminate HIV as well as define and validate useful prevention targets
  • Improve and develop new mathematical modelling tools: Conduct methodological and validation studies and innovative model development work to address new and challenging research questions
  • Assess existing evidence to improve model assumptions: Systematic and detailed meta-analytic reviews and secondary data analysis

Our projects are divided in three main types:

  1. HPTN Protocol based projects
  2. Non-protocol based projects
  3. External consultation projects

HPTN Protocol based projects

We conduct modelling studies to inform the design, conduct, analysis and interpret clinical trials before, during, and after they are completed


  • Research questions and directions
  • HPTN protocol development
  • Study objectives
  • Survey instruments
  • Trial design


  • Preliminary analysis of efforts needed to have meaningful intervention impact at the population level
  • Interim analysis of trials using programatic data to monitor progress and inform the conduct of the trial


  • Population level impact on HIV based on final trial results
  • Generalisation of trial results to a wider ranges of settings and populations
  • Cost-effectiveness analysis of scaling up tested interventions

Non protocol based projects

  • Understand HIV transmission dynamics
  • Novel model development to study challenging new research questions
  • Inform the design of clinical trials
  • Validate mathematical models, assess the influence of structural assumptions and formal model comparisons
  • Systematic literature reviews of mathematical models and of epidemiological studies to estimate model parameters

External consultation projects

We also offer paying consultation services to non-HPTN members to conduct similar studies

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