Using state-of-the art mathematical models and data to prevent HIV

A collaborative centre that develops and uses mathematical models and cost-effectiveness analysis to support HPTN research activities and inform research directions

What we do

A 2 minute introduction to the HPTN Modelling Centre

Our work at the 2024 HPTN annual meeting

  • Dr Romain Silhol plenary : “Identification of priority populations for HIV epidemic response: A combined analysis of 15 mathematical models from 10 African countries.”

WATCH: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agUORHJmhoQ&t=1290s

  • Dr James Stannah poster: “Investigating longitudinal links between homophobic violence, depression, alcohol use, and HIV risk among men who have sex with men and transgender women: preliminary findings with the HPTN 075 study”

Our recent collaboration with UNAIDS

  • Our publication: Measuring HIV Acquisitions Among Partners of Key Populations: Estimates From HIV Transmission Dynamic Models

As a result of our analysis in this paper (and another collaborative study that derived estimates of fractions of new HIV infections occurring among key populations), the UNAIDS has refined their methodology underpinning their annual estimates of the fraction of HIV infections acquired by partners of key populations.

You can read the full report here and watch our video on :


Our model based efficacy estimates of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention in cisgender women with partial adherence

Read the details here

The curve suggests that high adherence confers high protection in cisgender women. However, the lower efficacy with partial adherence highlights the need for new PrEP products and interventions to increase adherence.


Collaborative model comparison of long acting injectable PrEP

Using models to extrapolate the results of HPTN trial (HPTN-083) into population level impact and efficiency.
You can read the full story  of this analysis here 

Achieving high PrEP coverage by offering CAB‐LA can impact the HIV epidemic substantially if rolled out without delays. These PrEP expansions may be efficient in settings with high HIV incidence (like Atlanta) but not in settings with low HIV incidence (like Montreal and the Netherlands).

Additional results of the Atlanta model can also be found in our Lancet Reg Health Am paper

We found that If CAB effectiveness were like HPTN 083, CAB could prevent more infections than TDF/FTC at similar usage. Increased CAB usage could contribute substantially towards reaching EHE goals, but the usage required to meet EHE goals is unrealistic.