Resources – HPTN Modelling Centre

2024

Comparison of Empirically Derived and Model-Based Estimates of Key Population HIV Incidence and the Distribution of New Infections by Population Group in Sub-Saharan Africa

Stevens O, Anderson R, Stover J, Teng Y, Stannah J, Silhol R, Jones H, Booton RD, Martin-Hughes R, Johnson L, Maheu-Giroux M, Mishra S, Stone J, Bershteyn A, Kim HY, Sabin K, Mitchell KM, Dimitrov D, Baral S, Donnell D, Korenromp E, Rice B, Hargreaves JR, Vickerman P, Boily MC, Imai-Eaton JW

JAIDS

Measuring HIV Acquisitions Among Partners of Key Populations: Estimates From HIV Transmission Dynamic Models

Silhol R, Anderson RL, Stevens O, Stannah J, Booton RD, Baral S, Dimitrov D, Mitchell KM, Donnell D, Bershteyn A, Brown T, Kelly SL, Kim HY, Johnson LF, Maheu-Giroux M, Martin-Hughes R, Mishra S, Peerapatanapokin W, Stone J, Stover J, Teng Y, Vickerman P, Garcia SA, Korenromp E, Imai-Eaton JW, Boily MC

JAIDS

2023

Efficacy estimates of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention in cisgender women with partial adherence.

Moore M, Stansfield S, Donnell DJ, Boily MC, Mitchell KM, Anderson PL, Delany-Moretlwe S, Bekker LG, Mgodi NM, Celum CL, Dimitrov D

Nat Med

Estimating the impact of HIV PrEP regimens containing long-acting injectable cabotegravir or daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine among men who have sex with men in the United States: a mathematical modelling study for HPTN 083

Mitchell KM, Boily MC, Hanscom B, Moore M, Todd J, Paz-Bailey G, Wejnert C, Liu A, Donnell DJ, Grinsztejn B, Landovitz RJ, Dimitrov DT

Lancet Reg Health Am

Predicted effects of the introduction of long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study

Smith J, Bansi-Matharu L, Cambiano V, Dimitrov D, Bershteyn A, van de Vijver D, Kripke K, Revill P, Boily MC, Meyer-Rath G, Taramusi I, Lundgren JD, van Oosterhout JJ, Kuritzkes D, Schaefer R, Siedner MJ, Schapiro J, Delany-Moretlwe S, Landovitz RJ, Flexner C, Jordan M, Venter F, Radebe M, Ripin D, Jenkins S, Resar D, Amole C, Shahmanesh M, Gupta RK, Raizes E, Johnson C, Inzaule S, Shafer R, Warren M, Stansfield S, Paredes R, Phillips AN; HIV Modelling Consortium

Lancet HIV

Population-level impact of expanding PrEP coverage by offering long-acting injectable PrEP to MSM in three high-resource settings: a model comparison analysis

Stansfield SE, Heitner J, Mitchell KM, Doyle CM, Milwid RM, Moore M, Donnell DJ, Hanscom B, Xia Y, Maheu-Giroux M, Vijver DV, Wang H, Barnabas R, Boily MC, Dimitrov DT

JIAS

2022

Cite Share How Can Progress Toward Ending the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemic in the United States Be Monitored?

Mitchell KM, Maheu-Giroux M, Dimitrov D, Moore M, Hughes JP, Donnell D, Beyrer C, El-Sadr WM, Cohen MS, Boily MC

Clin Infect Dis

Estimating benefits of using on-demand oral prep by MSM: A comparative modeling study of the US and Thailand

Stansfield SE, Moore M, Boily MC, Hughes JP, Donnell DJ, Dimitrov DT.

EClinicalMedicine

2021

The potential effect of COVID-19-related disruptions on HIV incidence and HIV-related mortality among men who have sex with men in the USA: a modelling study

Mitchell KM, Dimitrov D, Silhol R, Geidelberg L, Moore M, Liu A, Beyrer C, Mayer KH, Baral S, Boily MC.

Lancet HIV

Assessing the Potential Impact of Disruptions Due to COVID-19 on HIV Among Key and Lower-Risk Populations in the Largest Cities of Cameroon and Benin

Silhol R, Geidelberg L, Mitchell KM, Mishra S, Dimitrov D, Bowring A, Béhanzin L, Guédou F, Diabaté S, Schwartz S, Billong SC, Njindam IM, Levitt D, Mukandavire C, Maheu-Giroux M, Rönn MM, Dalal S, Vickerman P, Baral S, Alary M, Boily MC.

JAIDS

Under-Reporting of Known HIV-Positive Status Among People Living with HIV: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Soni N, Giguère K, Boily MC, Fogel JM, Maheu-Giroux M, Dimitrov D, Eshleman SH, Mitchell KM

AIDS Behav

2020

Receptive anal sex contributes substantially to heterosexually acquired HIV infections among at‐risk women in twenty US cities: Results from a modelling analysis

Jocelyn Elmes, Romain Silhol, Kristen L. Hess , Lukyn M. Gedge, Ashley Nordsletten, Roisin Staunton, Peter Anton, Barbara Shacklett, Ian McGowan, Que Dang , Adaora A. Adimora , Dobromir T. Dimitrov, Sevgi Aral, Senad Handanagic, Gabriela Paz‐Bailey, Marie‐Claude Boily

American Journal of Reproductive Immunology

Phylodynamic Analysis of HIV-1 Subtypes B, C and CRF 02_AG in Senegal

Fabrícia F Nascimento, Stefan Baral 2, Lily Geidelberg 1, Christinah Mukandavire 1, Sheree R Schwartz, Gnilane Turpin, Nguissali Turpin, Daouda Diouf, Nafissatou Leye Diouf, Karleen Coly, Coumba Toure Kane, Cheikh Ndour, Peter Vickerman, Marie-Claude Boily, Erik M Volz

Epidemics

Understanding the HIV Epidemic Among MSM in Baltimore: A Modelling Study Estimating the Impact of Past HIV Interventions and Who Acquired and Contributed to Infections

Romain Silhol, Marie-Claude Boily, Dobromir Dimitrov, Danielle German, Colin Flynn, Jason E Farley, Marcy Gelman, James P Hughes, Deborah Donnell, Adeola Adeyeye, Robert H Remien, Chris Beyrer, Gabriela Paz-Bailey, Cyprian Wejnert, Kate M Mitchell

JAIDS

Identifying Regions of Greatest Need for Ending the HIV Epidemic: A Plan for America

Moore, Mia; Boily, Marie-Claude; Mitchell, Kate M.; Donnell, Deborah D Cohen, Myron S; Dimitrov, Dobromir T.

JAIDS

Model-Based Predictions of HIV Incidence Among African Women Using HIV Risk Behaviors and Community-Level Data on Male HIV Prevalence and Viral Suppression

James R Moore, Deborah J Donnell 1, Marie-Claude Boily 2 3, Kate M Mitchell 2, Sinead Delany-Moretlwe, Linda-Gail Bekker, Nyaradzo M Mgodi Wafaa El-Sadr, Myron S Cohen, Connie L Celum, Dobromir Dimitrov

JAIDS

Assessing the use of surveillance data to estimate the impact of prevention interventions on HIV incidence in cluster-randomized controlled trials

Mitchell KM, Dimitrov D, Hughes JP, Moore M, Vittinghoff E, Liu A, Cohen MS, Beyrer C, Donnell D, Boily MC

Epidemics

Increases in HIV Incidence Following Receptive Anal Intercourse Among Women: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Stannah J, Silhol R, Elmes J, Owen B, Shacklett BL, Anton P, McGowan I, van der Straten A, Dimitrov D, Baggaley RF, Boily MC

AIDS Behav.

2019

Improvements in the HIV care continuum needed to meaningfully reduce HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in Baltimore, US: a modelling study for HPTN 078.

Mitchell KM, Hoots B, Dimitrov D, German D, Flynn C, Farley JE, Gelman M, Hughes JP, Donnell D, Adeyeye A, Remien RH, Beyrer C, Paz-Bailey G, Boily MC.

J Int AIDS Soc; 22(3):e25246.

2019

Predicted effectiveness of daily and non-daily PrEP for MSM based on sex and pill-taking patterns from HPTN 067/ADAPT.

Dimitrov D, Moore JR, Wood D, Mitchell KM, Li M, Hughes JP, Donnell DJ, Mannheimer S, Holtz TH, Grant RM, Boily MC.

Clin Infect Dis. 2019 Aug 22. pii: ciz799.

HIV testing and engagement with the HIV treatment cascade among men who have sex with men in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

James Stannah, Elizabeth Dale, Jocelyn Elmes, Roisin Staunton, Chris Beyrer, Kate M Mitchell, Marie-Claude Boily

Lancet HIV

2018

Recruitment of female sex workers in HIV prevention trials: Can efficacy endpoints be reached more efficiently?

Daniel Wood, Kathryn Lancaster, Marie-Claude Boily, Kimberly Powers, Deborah Donnell, Mike Cohen, Dobromir Dimitrov

JAIDS, Volume 77, Issue 4, 350–357 (2018)

Influence of model assumptions about HIV disease progression after initiating or stopping treatment on estimates of infections and deaths averted by scaling up antiretroviral therapy

Kanes Sucharitakul, Marie-Claude Boily, Dobromir Dimitrov, Kate M Mitchell

PLoS ONE, 13(3): e0194220 (2018)

In What Circumstances Could Non-daily Pre-exposure Prophylaxis for HIV Substantially Reduce Program Costs? A HPTN 067/ADAPT based study

Kate M. Mitchell, Dobromir Dimitrov, James P. Hughes, Fan Xia, Deborah Donnell, K. Rivet Amico, Kevin Bokoch, Anupong Chitwarakorn, Linda-Gail Bekker, Timothy H. Holtz, Sharon Mannheimer, Robert M. Grant, Marie-Claude Boily

AIDS, 32(6):809-818 (2018)

Assessing the utility of the tipping point ratio to monitor HIV treatment programme in the era of universal access to ART

Simon de Montigny, Marie-Claude Boily, Benoît Mâsse, Kate M Mitchell, Dobromir Dimitrov

Infectious Disease Modelling, 3: 85-96 (2018)

Evidence of synergistic relationships between HIV and Human Papillomavirus (HPV): systematic reviews and meta‐analyses of longitudinal studies of HPV acquisition and clearance by HIV status, and of HIV acquisition by HPV status

Katharine J Looker, Minttu M Rönn, Patrick M Brock, Marc Brisson, Melanie Drolet, Philippe Mayaud, Marie‐Claude Boily

JIAS 21 (6): e25110

Does per-act HIV-1 transmission risk through anal sex vary by gender? An updated systematic review and meta-analysis.

Baggaley RF, Owen BN, Silhol R, Elmes J, Anton P, McGowan I, van der Straten A, Shacklett B, Dang Q, Swann EM, Bolton DL, Boily MC

Am J Reprod Immunol (2018)

2017

Changing dynamics of HIV transmission in Côte d’Ivoire: modeling which key populations acquired and transmitted HIV infections and estimating the impact of past HIV interventions (1976-2015)

Mathieu Maheu-Giroux, Juan F Vesga, Souleymane Diabaté, Michel Alary, Stefan Baral, Daouda Diouf, Kouamé Abo, and Marie-Claude Boily

JAIDS ;75(5):517-527 (2017)

Population-level impact of an accelerated HIV response plan to reach UNAIDS’ 90-90-90 target in Côte d’Ivoire: insights from mathematical modeling.

Mathieu Maheu-Giroux, Juan F Vesga, Souleymane Diabaté, Michel Alary, Stefan Baral, Daouda Diouf, Kouamé Abo, and Marie-Claude Boily

PLoS Med 14(6): e1002321 (2017)

Anal intercourse among female sex workers in Côte d’Ivoire: prevalence, frequency, determinants, and model-based estimates of its population-level impact on HIV transmission

Mathieu Maheu-Giroux, Stefan Baral, Juan F Vesga, Daouda Diouf, Souleymane Diabaté, Michel Alary, Abo Kouamé, and Marie-Claude Boily

AJE 187(2):287-297(2017)

2016

Potential impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis for female sex workers and men who have sex with men in Bangalore, India: a mathematical modelling study

Kate M Mitchell, Holly J Prudden, Reynold Washington, Shajy Isac, Subramanian P Rajaram, Anna M Foss, Fern Terris-Prestholt, Marie-Claude Boily, Peter Vickerman

Journal of the International AIDS Society, 19:20942 (2016)