Enhancing Recruitment, Linkage to Care and Treatment for HIV-Infected Men Who Have Sex with Men (MSM) in the United States : HPTN 078

Study objectives

The primary objectives of HPTN 078  are to:

• Assess the ability of DC-RDS to identify and recruit HIV-infected MSM in the US who are not virally suppressed.

• Compare the efficacy of the two study arms (CM intervention vs. SOC control) in achieving durable viral suppression (defined as HIV VL < 200 copies/ml) 24 months after enrollment.

Modelling objectives

Develop, calibrate, and use a mathematical model of HIV transmission among MSM in the US to assess the short and long-term population-level impact of the study strategy, and its independent CM intervention components (e.g., HIV testing, ART uptake, retention in care and viral suppression), on HIV incidence and to estimate the level of viral suppression required to reduce HIV incidence in the MSM community by 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% over 2, 5 and 10 years, and the likelihood of and time to elimination.


Study PIs:

Chris Beyrer, MD, MPH
Professor of Epidemiology, International Health, and Health, Behavior and Society
Director, Center for Public Health and Human Rights
Associate Director, Johns Hopkins Center for AIDS Research
Johns Hopkins University

Robert H. Remien, PhD
Professor of Clinical Psychology (in Psychiatry)
Director, HIV Center for Clinical and
Behavioral Studies
Associate Director, Division of Gender,
Sexuality and Health, NY State Psychiatric
Institute and Columbia University


Additional Funding

The HPTN Modelling Centre, which is funded by the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH UM1 AI068617) through HPTN fully funded this work.


  • Publications
  • Presentations

    HPTN annual meeting 2016 (Washington DC)

    HPTN Modelling Center Plenary

    Introducing HPTN Modelling Centre: Who? What? When? How?

    Marie-Claude Boily

    Modelling HIV Transmission and Treatment for US MSM to Estimate the Impact of HPTN 078 on HIV Incidence.

    Kate M. Mitchell

    Predicting the individual-level effectiveness of daily and non-daily PrEP based on study results from HPTN 067 ADAPT

    Dobromir Dimitrov

    Abstract: HPTN 067 evaluated the feasibility of daily and two non-daily PrEP regimens among women in South Africa and men who have sex with men (MSM), and transgender women, in Thailand and US. The study was designed to assess differences in acceptability and adherence to different PrEP regimens but not differences in HIV incidence across arms. We have used an individual-based mathematical model to compare the predicted reduction in HIV incidence under different dosing regimens using detailed sexual activity data from each trial site. A sex act was assumed ”PrEP protected” if a PrEP dose was taken within 2 days before the act and another dose was taken within 1 day after the act. A sex act was assumed “semi-protected” if only one of the two doses were taken. We also consider how the assumed PrEP efficacy during PrEP protected sex acts influences modelling predictions. Our analysis suggests that non-daily PrEP is unlikely to be as effective as daily PrEP in reducing HIV incidence among females in South Africa and among MSM in the USA and Thailand due to higher proportions of sex acts reported to be protected by PrEP with daily use. The comparison across the three sites suggests that PrEP was most effective among MSM in Thailand whereas the success of PrEP interventions among women in South Africa or MSM in the USA may depend on the PrEP efficacy for semi-protected acts.

    IAS 2017 – 9th IAS Conference on HIV Science (Paris)

    Our Symposium: Recent Advances in Mathematical Modelling to Inform HIV Prevention Research Activities and Directions


    • Marie-Claude Boily, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
    • Kate Margaret Mitchell, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
    • Dobromir Dimitrov, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, United States

    Introduction to HPTN modelling Centre

    Marie-Claude Boily

    Women at risk, young people and HIV interventions in Ivory Coast: what is their impact on the national HIV epidemic?

    Mathieu Maheu-Giroux

    Estimating the impact of improvements in the HIV care cascade on HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in the US: mathematical modelling for HPTN 078

    Kate Margaret Mitchell

    Recruitment of Female Sex Workers in HIV Prevention Trials: Could Efficacy Endpoints Be Reached More Efficiently in HPTN trials?

    Dobromir Dimitrov

    Main conference

    Dynamic modelling of the HIV care cascade in the United States: where are people leaving the cascade and where should we intervene?

    Feyi Fadero, Marie-Claude Boily, Kate M Mitchell

    CAHR 2016 – 25th Annual Canadian Conference on HIV/AIDS Research (Winnipeg)

    In What Circumstances Could Non-daily Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) Substantially Reduce Program Costs (HPTN 067)?

    Kate M Mitchell, Dobromir Dimitrov, James P Hughes, Fan Xia, Deborah Donnell, Linda-Gail Bekker, Timothy H. Holtz, Sharon Mannheimer, Robert M Grant, Marie-Claude Boily

    Differences in Sexual Behaviour and Access to ART are Insufficient to Explain Racial Disparities in HIV Risk for Men Who Have Sex with Men (MSM) in Baltimore

    Kate M Mitchell, Dobromir Dimitrov, Marie-Claude Boily

    Do Modelling Assumptions About HIV Disease Progression On and Post-treatment Affect Estimates of Treatment Impact?

    Kanes Sucharitakul, Marie-Claude Boily, Kate M Mitchell

    HIV intervention impact predictions from deterministic and individuals based models

    Romain Silhol, Marc Brisson, John Williams, Nicolas Van de Velde, Michel Alary, Michael Pickles, Dobromir T. Dimitrov, Peter Vickerman, Marie-Claude Boily

    Importance of Epidemiological Tipping Point Ratio for ART Programme Success

    Simon de Montigny, Dobromir T. Dimitrov, Benoît R. Mâsse, Kate M. Mitchell, Marie-Claude Boily,

    Importance of Recruitment Process and Epidemic Initiation in Mathematical Models for Evaluating HIV Prevention Interventions

    Simon de Montigny, Benoît R. Mâsse, Dobromir T. Dimitrov

    Abstracts book

    R4P 2016 – HIV Research for Prevention (Chicago)

    Potential Impact on HIV Incidence of Increasing Viral Suppression among HIV-positive MSM in Baltimore: Mathematical Modelling for HPTN 078. [webcast]

    Kate M Mitchell, Brooke Hoots, Dobromir Dimitrov, Jason Farley, Marcy Gelman, Danielle German, Colin Flynn, Robert H Remien, Chris Beyrer, Gabriela Paz-Bailey, Marie-Claude Boily


    Modeling the HIV Epidemic in Côte d’Ivoire: Impact of Past Interventions.

    Maheu-Giroux M, Vesga JF, Diabaté S, Alary M, and Boily MC

    Predicted Effectiveness of Daily and non-Daily PrEP based on Sex Coverage Data from HPTN 067 ADAPT Sites in South Africa, Thailand and US.

    Dobromir Dimitrov, Daniel Wood, Kate M Mitchell, Maoji Li, James P Hughes, Deborah Donnell, Linda-Gail Bekker, Sharon Mannheimer, Timothy H. Holtz, Robert M Grant, Marie-Claude Boily

  • Press Releases